A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
