Just 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. As Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have accumulated.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, this is a surprise. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
